The 2024 presidential race in the seven core swing states is shaping up to be incredibly tight, with nearly 39% of recent polls showing margins of 1 percentage point or less. The consistency of these results suggests that pollsters may be artificially adjusting their data to create a false sense of certainty.
In a perfect polling world, we would expect to see much more variation in results due to randomness. However, the current state polls are clustering closely around specific margins, indicating potential herding behavior or common weighting strategies among pollsters. This could lead to a misleading impression of the election’s true outcome.
Even in swing states like Pennsylvania, where polls are less clustered, there is still an unusual lack of variation in results. This concentration of margins may be a result of pollsters adjusting their data to match the results of other polls, potentially leading to a significant polling error on Election Day.
The similarity of margins in state polls raises questions about whether the close race is a true reflection of voter sentiment or a result of pollster decisions. The possibility of a significant polling error cannot be ruled out, as the lack of variation in poll results may not accurately represent the final election outcome.
It remains to be seen whether the tight margins seen in polls will translate to a close election in 2024, or if the clustering of results is artificially creating a misleading narrative. The outcome of the election could ultimately be very different from what the polls currently suggest.
Source
Photo credit www.nbcconnecticut.com