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Election uncertainty abounds in historically tight race.


Political strategist James Carville was recently approached by anxious New Yorkers seeking predictions about the November election, but he had nothing to offer, emphasizing that no one can predict the future. The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is currently deadlocked, with polls showing razor-thin margins. The polling data is extremely close, with the race split exactly 48%-48%, making it near impossible to determine which way the election is trending.

The uncertainty is reminiscent of the 2000 election between Bush and Gore, when the outcome came down to 537 votes in Florida, leading to a legal battle. The rise of “big data” has created a false perception of certainty in predicting election outcomes. The Trump era brought back uncertainty after his surprise victory in 2016. Polling was close in the 2004 and 2012 elections as well.

The stability of the electorate, combined with the unpredictable nature of the Electoral College, adds to the uncertainty of the outcome. Analysts note that voters’ views remain impervious to new information, leading to minimal shifts in polls. While the race appears to be tightening in the final weeks, experts suggest that the final result may not reflect current polling. Carville and others speculate that the battleground states may ultimately break in one direction, leading to a more definitive outcome.

In conclusion, no one can accurately predict the outcome of the November election, and while the polls indicate a close race, the final result may not reflect the current polling data. The unprecedented stability of the electorate and the uncertain nature of the Electoral College make it challenging to determine which way the election may swing.

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www.nbcnews.com

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